These days, almost every metro station in Stockholm has billboards messaging military news—“for the sake of freedom.” The government launched a historical Swedish military rearmament plan.
“We are facing an entirely new security environment,” Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson said as he presented a plan to raise Sweden’s defense spending to 3,5% of GDP by 2030.
The Nordic country drastically slashed defense spending after the Cold War ended and in the early 2000s, but reversed course following Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.
The ads at the metro stations now proclaim that a newly refurbished, now top-class submarine recently went back into service; that 503 specialist officers are in training; and that the latest generation of the Jas Gripen fighter jet, the 39E, will soon be ready for take-off.
Image: Slide on the Swedish Fleet by 2030 during a media briefing by Admiral Ewa Skoog Haslum, Chief of Royal Swedish Navy, in May 2022.
*****************************************
Related: Swedish Gripen Jets Joined NATO
*****************************************
“Sweden and Europe are facing an entirely new security environment. That’s why today we unveiled Sweden’s largest military rearmament plan since the days of the Cold War,” Kristersson said on March 26.
The Nordic country dropped two centuries of military non-alignment and applied for membership in NATO in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, becoming its 32nd member in March 2024.
In the past five years, Sweden has upped its military spending by 138 per cent, from €5.5bn in 2020 to €13bn this year. The plan was to add another 30 per cent to the defense budget by 2030, but the prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, now wants to exceed this with the Rearm Europe Plan. “We will without a doubt belong to the countries that will be quickest in strengthening our defense,” he said.
The rearmament deal is based on an agreement with the Sweden Democrats, a far-right political party.
According to Oscar Jonsson, associate senior lecturer at the Swedish Defence University and the author of several books on Sweden’s rearmament, Sweden initiated perhaps the most radical disarmament in the Western world. These books are now helping Swedes to understand the new reality of remilitarization. However, Jonsson points out that “toing and froing still hurts the military today”.
Kristersson said that his country expected NATO to decide to increase the spending target at an upcoming alliance summit in June and was aiming at what it believed the new target would be.
However, Sweden risks spending its defense budget on the wrong things. Compared to its allies, Sweden disproportionately invests in expensive systems and technologies that take a long time to develop without prioritizing how they will be used in practice. Crucially, there’s a lack of focus on personnel, pilots, and logistics systems.
The plan includes purchasing new defense material totaling SEK 25 billion (€2,31 billion) from 2025, with deliveries in 2026–2028.
While previous defense spending increases have been financed through the country’s regular budget, Kristersson said that to rearm in such a short time, it was necessary to borrow funds for defense during a “transitional period”.
Lessons from the war in Ukraine are going unheeded: There is a need for heavy air defenses, up-to-date electronic warfare capabilities, and the ability to conduct long-range combat. Sweden’s fighter pilots, for example, are not putting in any more training hours today than they were five years ago, hovering at about 11,250 hours a year.
Sweden also intends to boost its defense against hybrid threats. An additional SEK 96 million (€8,86 million) will be spent in 2025 on a hybrid threats package to strengthen the capabilities of the Swedish Coast Guard, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, and the Psychological Defense Agency. It will empower the authorities to counter and manage hybrid threats in various domains, including the maritime and cyber domains, Kristersson and his government explain.
US President Donald Trump has turbocharged a drive for Europe to rearm by casting doubt on Washington’s central role in NATO and his overtures towards Russia on Ukraine.
Sweden is a country that prides itself on being measured, reserved, and logical, but its military growth spurt resembles the sudden developments of puberty. If it’s not the legs that suddenly look too long, it’s the arms. Put together, the limbs can appear recalcitrant, uncoordinated, and even sometimes a little comical. The new tagline for Sweden’s military spending spree should read: “For the sake of freedom from ineptitude,” as Monocle’s contributor Lewitschnik says.
Historical Swedish Military Rearmament Plan, reported by Tor Kjolberg
Feature image (top) © Jimmy Croona/government.se